Monday, June 29, 2009

Market summary

Market staged a rally today but volume was anaemic. The holiday week is having its effect and end of qtr/6 months window dressing is also going on. I guess real direction will be picked by market only after july 4th weekend till then its bunch of bots struggling over each other. Sector wise Oil/Ag led higher while bio techs were lower.
Personally I took just 1 trade UPL short and booked some profit on it intraday and would be light tomorrow too. Its probably a good idea to day trade or just sit aside till a better picture emerges for swing positions.
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Friday, June 26, 2009

Market summary

Markets were kind of flat and mixed again. Volume was heavy because of Russell rebalance so cannot read too much into it. Markets are deciding its net course of action and are very choppy but individual stocks continue to work. Sector performance was mixed with reits higher while materials homebuilders lower. This is market of stocks and some stocks are workign just fine while markets are in flux.
I had good day today with TNL and SVA while got stopped out on AMG. Next week is shortened one and I may not be very active and will only watch my positions.
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Thursday, June 25, 2009

Market summary

Markets negated yesterdays late day sell off and rallied hard after opening lower. Internals were very strong and volume was heavier a bit so over all this was a strong up day and should not be discounted. Sector wise everything was up today let by homebuilders and materials.
Personally it wasnt a good day for me today as I had to cover short on SBH at open after the upgrade and then JRCC which was acting weak all day picked up late in day and had to cover that too.

It looks like we probably may enter summer doldrum period of sideways market action and it could be time for buying dips and selling rips.

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Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Market summary

As promised we got some movement in markets today, in morning to upside and then after fed decision to downside and then closing mixed with dow lower s&p, nasdaq higher. Over all it was another indecision day on low volume. But sell off after fed decision was on higher volume than early morning surge. Markets look heavy here and I initiated short position in SBH.
Sector wise Ag, Industrials were higher while oil was lower. In my IRA acct I also rebought TBT today as long term play on rising interest rates.
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Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Market summary

Markets were mixed and very choppy today on low volume, a doji/indecision on both sides. We might see some fireworks tomorrow as its a fed day and that probably will set the tone of markets for next few days. Sector wise biggest losers of last two days were up today (oil/commmodities) while retailers lagged today.
I have been staying lightly involved for past two days in markets and will continue till get a clearer picture as to where does this market want to go.
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Monday, June 22, 2009

Market summary

Markets sold off very hard with very strong downward internals too. The bulls have lost the ball control now and its bears turn. Lets see how far bears run with the ball. We decidedly closed below some major supports across the indexes. QQQQ closed below the previous breakout level, Dow jones below 50 dma while SPY below 200 and 50 dma. Sector wise no sector was able to stay green today and materials/commodities took the brunt of decline while utils were the strongest among all.
Personally I missed few shorts at open and I sat all day long doing nothing. Later in day I bought MAPP and BMI which were showing strength in the broader markets. I think now we are a little oversold and we will consolidate here for few days before moving further. That might help the longs I bough today to go higher may be. I don't have any shorts as most of my short list is already down 6-8% today and I would wait for consolidation/pullback on them to short it. If anything pops up I will post on twitter.

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Thursday, June 18, 2009

Market summary

Markets rallied today a bit as expected on low volume. Tomorrow is options expirtaion plus futures rollover etc so could be volatile. SPY has broke trendline while QQQQ are right at it. Clearly Q's are strongest and when this correction is over Q's could be the place I want to buy.
Finacials utils healthcare led while homebuilder semis lead the downside.
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Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Market summary

Indexes were mixed today with Nasdaq100 up while others down. Volume on NASDAQ was heavy and it bounced off some very important support. As I mentioned I wasn't expecting it to take that support out first time but if we bang at this support couple of more times it will be vulnerable.
Sectorwise biotech and healthcare were stronger sectors while Oil/Ag/finacials were the weakest. Overall it was a mixed market as expected we are in sweetspot between 10 and 20 day moving averages. I expect markets to bounce a little from here going into options expiration on Friday. I plan to close some of my very few longs left into that move and standaside for shorts or longs to appear. Some shorts have already started to appear. UNH for one very vulnerable below 23.23.
Look for watchlist on twitter.
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Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Market summary

Markets sold off some more today on light volume, we are getting short term oversold and coming into some major supports, the way markets will handle these supports will be tell on strength of bears. Sector wiese healthcare and biotechs were strong while all other sectors were in red led by retailers especially after Best buy's earnings report in morning.
This is time to watch for strong stocks and to see how they handle this pullback to get long. This is time to not be aggressive but keep an eye on watch list. I have been reducing my longs as well as reducing my hedges and redcuing overall exposure in the markets.
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Monday, June 15, 2009

Market summary

Markets pulled back today on heavier volume than Friday and is in support area now. How markets handle this pullback now will give some hint into further direction. I had mentioned that bulls were not as strong as they looked an dinternals were weakening and today bears overpowered. It will be interesting to see if it would be just a normal pullback or something more. For now I expect some sideways consolidation and I dont expect just a rapid decline from here.
Sector wise commodities led to biggest declines while all the sectors were in red today. Only bright spots were dollar and Natgas today.
I have been pounding table that Nat gas is buy for long term portfolio as volume is heaviest ever in natgas etf in last few weeks. I am still holding all my position in Natgas both in trading and my ira acct. I think Natgas train is just leaving and a pullback tomorrow can be bought.
I closed lot of my long positions today BWEN, ICO for profit while ILMN, HPQ for small losses.
I also closed my BGZ and SDS hedges for profit while holding FAZ and SRS for more downside.

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Friday, June 12, 2009

Market Summary

Markets remained boring and choppy today. After initial morning sell off we consolidated all day and had a late day surge ending the day almost flat across all the indexes. Morning was ugly after yesterdays reversal but volume was light and which meant that we were going to see a range bound day and that's what we saw today. For a change oil, commodities, semis were lower and retailers/IYR was up today. Overall we are still in a range bound market and individual stocks are working. Will post some charts/picks for next week over the weekend on twitter.

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Thursday, June 11, 2009

Market summary

A fresh high in indexes but got rejected pretty hard into close. As I said the tone and tenor of market is changing its unable to sustain highs, gaps etc which means market is not as strong as few weeks ago. Individual stocks are working just fine and few of them are runnign double digit percent gains in few hours. But a new high is new high and unless proven otherwise bulls still have upperhand and market is to be played oto long side, though individual short names are starting to appear now.
Sectorwise oil, commodities, stel led while, retailers, homebuilders lagged today.
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Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Market summary

Markets are range bound and bulls dont have that much power. Gaps are being faded now whichi s clealr different behavior from few weeks ago where every gap higher in morning was being bought. Alsobetter than expected jobs number friday was sold which is another change in mindset from few weeks ago where even bad news was being bought. But uptrend is still intact and playing from long side is advisable but with smaller size and tighter stops. After treasury auction at noon it looked like finally we are breaking down for good but bulls came back rigth into close and we made another doji day, more dojis we have and more days we hold 92.76 and above 200ma, more there is a chance that we continue this uptrend. Sectorwise commodities/oil kept on working while financials /retailers/reits lagged.
My porfolio did good because I am long individual stocks and short finacials/and commercial re as a hedge against my longs.
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Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Market summary

Markets made another doji day today but we gotta respect that $compx/qqqq were able to make another high though on light volume. Even though market had lagged some ferocity in upmove but individual names especially small caps rocked again today and I was able to take part in some of them and had a good day. I had mentioned that yesterday we had big volume up movement and I was interpreting yesterdays action as a pullback which suggested that we may rally today and we did rally.
Short term price action is bullish as of now but bulls are not as strong as they used to be and internals are weakening but nothing to suggest its time to go short. Its probably a good time to reduce longs, reduce size and tightern the stops.
Sector wise materials/oil commodities rallied while Reits/Retailers lagged.

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Monday, June 8, 2009

Market summary

Things looked ugly at open today but after early morning sell off things kind of slowed down and then we had a late day surge followed by selling into close. Overall I would call this action as a low volume pullback and bulls look much stronger than everyone thinks. Everyone is looking for a correction and we may not get one for some time, this tape feels and acts bullish to me as longs as 92.76 is held on SPY. Homebuilders, finacials led to upside while commodities lagged following the strength in dollar. One sector I am getting bullish on now is biotech which is acting well and has room to run unlike othe sectors who have run quite a bit from march lows. Look for watch list for tomorrow on twitter.

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Thursday, June 4, 2009

Market summary

Markets rose today on low volume but nasdaq and russell cash were able to make another high which was a bullish sign. I had mentioned yesterday that a retest of high was likely after yesterdays sell off and we did retest and were able to make new highs. SPY lagged but it may catchup. Sector wise we were led higher again by minerals/financials/oil/commodities/reits while defensive sector lagged.
Tomorrow is the big day as monthly job numbers are out and it could be big market mover. I eneterd some more long positions and bought SPY puts as hedge ahead of job numbers tomorrow.
Watch UNG, had a big hammer on biggest volume ever and I am heavily long in both my IRA and trading acct I think the ship is turning in UNG.
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Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Market summary

Markets pulled back today and tested their breakout level on low volume and ended day lower with heavy volume buying coming into close. I had posted this scenario yesterday and it acted as I had expected. What next? Was it the first bear sighting or just a kiss of brerakout and higher? If last minute buying was any clue I think we may go higher to test the upside on SPY at 95.37 and if we clear that than I think next higher leg may get a green signal. But atleast a test of 95.37 is likely imho.
Sector side the winners of last few days were the biggest losers today oil/energy/materials etc while financials and reits held pretty well today.
Regarding my portfolio I sold AHD for 40% gain in a day and I bought some MATK XOM and CYPB which I posted on twitter. Also sold my SPY puts from yesterday. Will try to post a watch list for tomorrow on twitter.

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Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Market summary

Markets consolidated/churned all day long after last two days of gains. Small caps were leaders again today. We are at some very important levels here and bulls need to hold this breakout they got on Monday. Having said that I still think there is a good chance we go back and test that breakout level and fill the gap from Friday. Sector wise Home builders led the advance followed by bio techs, while Semi/financials closed to the downside.

Portfolio wise I played AMGN today and closed with small profit but I think bio tech sector (IBB) is breaking out. I also entered AXL AHD and OCNF on long side and bought SPY put to hedge my long portfolio.
Stocks to watch for tomorrow NEXM BCRX IBB NM MATK
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Monday, June 1, 2009

Market summary

Indexes broke to a new high of this rally and also January highs on $SPX. Volume was moderate but no heavy on this breakout but price is king. $SPX closed above 200 period ma which is bullish sign. I had mentioned quite a few times here and on twitter that my gut says we will break to new highs, million dollar question is what next? Are we all clear to move higher or is it a false breakout with a bull trap, only time will tell. For now play what you got now what you expect and for now bulls are in charge. Sectorwise clearly global growth stcoks were leaders again led by steel minerals metals energy etc. Surprisinly retaliers were in leaders too while financials were clear laggards.

Position wise I sold BYD and CTXS call spread while I bought some SVNT FNSR and FAZ. I also added to my UNG and WFR position today.

For tomorrow watch AMGN, KLAC. I will also look for entry in GNW MRO and MATK if I could find one.

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