Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Day Summary

Perfect example of buy the rumor sell the news. Technically indexed retraced back from their 200 ma on big volume with long reversal bars, I would expect some selling to continue for next few days. Russell2000 looks weakest and Q's look strongest. Yesterday's sell off in energy didnt follow thru today so we still have only 1 strike against energy sector, interestingly nat gas rallied while oil pulled back. Fed announcement put further pressure on dollar and currencies/gold rallied on the news. Interesting times in market, is this rally getting over and currencies/gold/bonds trying to regain their uptrend or markets trying to consolidate before pushing ahead. Next few days might have some clue.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Day Summary

Eventhough broader markets had no sign of weakness theer was huge underlying weakness in indiavidual stocks, few sectors clearly got hammered today. One of them was oil and nat gas sector which was the worst performer of the day. Coal stocks which have been market leaders lately also got hit hard. Notably on the bright side retailers, transportation and semis led the charge, it could be just one off day or start of sector rotation. Clearly oild going down will definitely help retailers and transport sector. Tomorrow is Fed day so expect some volatility.

Monday, April 28, 2008

Day Summary

I couldnt write here for past two weeks because of time constraints. But I am back on my schedule. There is total directionless trading going on for past 3-4 days with big bars and no definit movement to anyside, I guess its hurry up and wait mode before next Fed decision on wednesday. volume also has dropped significantly not in equities but across currencies and t-notes. Oil, Natgas and Oil svcs sector continues to work and thats pretty much I own right now and I am scaling out of them.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Day Summary

Markets digested yesterdays gain and remained range bound most of the day, a bullish sign.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Day Summary

Markets had a blast day today nice move on nice volume, this market feels like bottoming, though fundamental stacks up against it with oil hitting high almost every day and inflation rising worldwide this market is rallying. A Technical analyst job is to analyse the price pattern and price pattern turned pretty bullish today and we may see a retest of 1395 1400 zone on S&P. May be all the bearish factors are already priced in and market is looking ahead but I am not touching my short etfs in my long term IRA accounts for now because the trend is still down. I probably will start covering if SPY breaks 1405. Had a nice gain today on QTWW and PGH continues to work following nat gas which made a new 10 month high today. Also shorted DELL after hrs when it rallied on IBM earnings news, lets see how it acts tomorrow.
Watching DPTR, GENC and EXPO as longs for tomorrow. MGM GRMN as shorts.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Day Summary

Another distribution day today. A retest of 1310 on SPY very likely and may be if we hold that level we may rally if not than a retest of March lows is likely. QQQQ lokks strongest and I would be buyer of QQQQ around 43.2 level for an immediate bounce before deciding whether to hold or get out.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Day Summary

Another low volume day and hurryup and wait mode.

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Day Summary

Volume picked up slightly today with selling, a bearish sign and seemed like a distribution day to me. Strong support on S&P lies around 1310-1320 and that could be a good place to buy SPY for a short term trade. I will be looking to buy SPY around that level. Toda was day of commodities with oil making another all time high and that helped lift all the grains and gold. Dollar dropped a little and euro, yen and swiss franc rallied along with 10 yr tnotes. Though I am not a funadamental guy but the long term picture doesnt look too bullsih to me. With oil pointing to 112 and gasoline rising and summer drive season approaching and Ag softs again raising their head we may have some serious problem of runaway inflation along with slowing growth, the worst case scenario for stock market. The point is how much of this scenraio is already priced in by the market and how much of further inputs (such as oil going higher etc) will make it worse. In the meantime there are always tradable rallies in bear markets one like that is what we saw in last two weeks.

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Day Summary

Another low volume day, lot of people sitting on sideline. Individual stocks are working while indexes and sectors are chopping around.

Monday, April 7, 2008

Day Summary

Seems like rally is running out of steam as we are in some major resistance zone. Short term I think we may chop around here or may start to rollover again. But there are plenty of longs who are now performing well including my favorites for last two weeks WMT and RYL which still look ok if they pull back for entry. I also like XLB, AMX, WFT on a pull back. Over all across the board there is not a single market(commodities/bonds/currencies/equities) which is worth swing trading right now, most of them are in day trading mode so its better to sit aside and keep the powder dry or be on your toes in getting in and out of the market.

Thursday, April 3, 2008

Day Summary

Markets are reaching over bought territory and some important resistances now. S&P has a big resistance around 1400, that should put a lid on the market around that level for few days and that trading around that level will decide the future ahead.