Friday, May 29, 2009

Market summary

Chop fest continued all day except in the close where some heavy buying came and took indexes to high of the day. $compx (Nasdaq cash index) was able to close at a new high of this rally on good volume while other indexes still are not there. Sector wise Materials/Energy and transports led the charge while biotech and semi were laggards.

I think my gut is showing the right direction and we were able to atleast hit a new high in one index. Lets see if others follow it and now is the time to see if the breakout is real or a bull trap is getting formed. Position wise I sold DXO, GDX call spread. Bought F and DSX. My trad list from yesterday did good SLX, MEE, ANR CNX. Will post some for monday on twitter this weekend.
www.twitter.com/sidshar

Monday should be an intersting day in market.

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Market Summary

The chop-fest continues in the market and market is sorting out which side to go next. But reversal of lows and good volume on daily looks bullish to me. Sector wise we were led higher by Steel, Oil and Materials and Financials. Home builders/Retailers led to downside. I still like sectors which play into global growth story such as oil, steel , minerals materials as well as Inflation sector. Anything linked to US consumer such as retailers/REITS/financials is where I look for shorts.
As I tweeted yesterday if I go by my gut then I think one more move to upside is coming and that may suck lot of bulls and then we may form a bull trap. But again its my gut and I only put very small money on my gut feel which I have by adjusting my portfolio a little skewed to bullish side.
UNG had a good day today on which I sold some UNG bought in last two days. Also I closed my AUY position for nice gain north of 12% in last 5 days. I still hold GDX call spread but apart from that my gold miners trade is pretty much over. I got stopped out on STEM , pos is still stuck in range and is in a squeeze, which ever direction it fires it will be intersting to play.
For tomorrow I like SLX it may breakout higher. I also like Coal stocks such as MEE, CNX ANR.
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Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Market summary

Markets gave up lots of gains from yesterday aleit on low volume, this is what is called as churning process or consolidation. We are range bound for last 3-4 weeks now and the breakout from this range will see the next direction. Sector wise semi and energy were up most of them were down.


Its a no mans land right now and I am hedged 65% long 35% short and most of my longs are thru options hence my risk is well defined in them. During this time I generally reduce position size and become quick in taking profits.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Market Summary

Markets had a solid green day with akll major indexes rising >2% and small caps leading wiht IWM rising >4%. I mentioned in thursdays post that 88.15 is key on SPY and on friday it held and today it was the day for bulls and they ran with the ball hard. Volume was light on SPY but IWM and Q's volume was heavy. Sectors wise Reits led the advance followed by minerals materials. Retailers and consumer discretionaty also were big gainer. The main reason for retailers/discretionary stock to rally was the consumer confidence report which was way better than expected. Gold was down today.
On gold weakness I added to miners GDX AUY which I had reduced on Friday.
I had a good day in my acct and sold 90% of TBT with gains north of 10% in last 5 days. I added to my UNG position and also initiated new positions in KBH, CIT. I guess we may see some further upside this week and I will reduce my longs in that strength. I think I have lots of position in my hands to manage and will only initiate new positions when I close some.
Watch for my realtime updates on www.twitter.com/sidshar

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Market summary

Markets closed solidly in red for the day but well of their lows because of some late session buying. I had mentioned yesterday that I was expecting some weakness today and I had long SDS position which I closed right at open when we gapped down pretty hard. SPY went till 88.26 and bounced and gave a doji bar (which means indecision) because as mentioned the support on SPY is at 88.15 which held for now. Volume was not heavy but other indicators such as TICK AD lines were very bearish. SPY is now in no mans land and it may go any side now and we are still not out of woods just because we held 88.15. Tomorrow's close could be important into suggest the short term direction of this move. I think we may poke 88.15 tomorrow but watch for close to see if we close below that. As suggested yesterday GOLD and GDX decisively broke out and had a follow thru day today. I twitted AUY today and booked some nice gains, still hold 1/2. Also TBT has more upside and I sold some and still hold 1/2 position, it has room till 55 to run.
Sectorwise it was a reverse story today, Global growth stories (materials, steel energy) were lower while finacials closed in green today. Everything said that watch for a close below 88.15 or a above 89.9 to find out new direction of this market. Some charts may setup after todays sell off and I will tweet them this evening.
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Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Market summary

As I mentioned yesterday that I am short term neutral to bearish I saw a confirmation today with huge reversals across the board in all sectors. We opened very strong and should have continued higher but the breakdown in morning was a bearish sign and then volume picked up. Finacials were lagging from start and that was not good sign, even good ones like GS reversed at open and that was the tell. I think we might see some more selling tomorrow and if this was the first higher high since march rally then we need to see a break of 88.15 on spy and that will confirm the trend change. But for now we are still in an uptrend and I would take this reversal as a retest of 88.15. Trade one day at a time and take what you get not what you want, thats my theory.
Sector wise again global growth stories energy/steel/materials led higher while reits and finacilas were lower. But even those leading sectors fomed a very bearish bar in closing and not a good sign for tomorrow. Look at Gold and Gold miners they are breaking out and may run quite a bit. I am long both Gold thru DGP and Miners thru GDX which I tweeted this morning. My last night charts which I eneterd acted nicely in morning but reversed with markets so I closed them with small profits. As always will try to post some charts by evening on twitter. Follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/sidshar

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Market summary

Markets closed mixed and flat today with nasdaq slightly higher and s&p, dow and russell 2000 slightly lower. We created a doji bar on spy with close towards the low which means indecision.
Regarding yesterdays picks on twitter FSLR and TBT both rocked today and I was able to book some gains on both of them. Overall solar had a good day and I continue to hold TAN in my ira for longer term.
As I mentioned yesterday volume was light on yesterdays advance and it remained light today with volume picking up in last 1/2 hr when we sold off pretty aggressively. Sector leaders were materials, steel, semis(global growth stories) while finacials and reits(US problem) were the laggards. As I mentioned yesterday we did see some weakness at open today and I was able to sell my SDS for a profit in that weakness and bought it back in last 1/2 hr at lower price as I suspect some weakness tomorrow. I am neutral to bearish in short term and I think we may see some further downside in indexes. I think good individual stocks may continue to perform either going in sideways consolidation or may keep on inching higher.
Besides my bias trade what you got not what you want, so if markets show me bullish hand I will take it and will forgo my SDS. One thing more I always run my portfolio a little hedged if I am having to have any overnite exposure.
Thats all for now, will try to post some stocks for tomorrow on twitter.
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Monday, May 18, 2009

Market summary

Markets opened strong and the look and feel looked strong right from open because overnit we had a big rally in India, and Europe was higher at open. Very soon after the open markets went into a trending day though sector participation was weak in morning but picked up lately and we closed at the HOD(high of day) on SPY. Since open I was looking for longs because A/d was very strong and we hade a gap up on 26 min chart. Sector wise REITS and Finacials took us higher followed by materials discretionary , Oil and retailers. Surprisingly Semis and Tech were laggards today which is not a good sign. Moreover volume looked like we are already in holiday mode another divergence. Gold and Dollar lagged so did utilities and biotechs. For trade I took MEE, SGY SPIL as day trade and booked profits on them. For Swing I entered MGM at 8.52 and sold Jun10 calls against it. At Close I picked up some SDS at 57.83 because we are alittle overbought on shorter time frames and we may either have some morning weakness at open tomorrow or a gap higher and a quick gap fill in both case I plan to get out of SDS tomorrow morning. I may post some stocks I will be watching for tomorrow on twitter this evening. Follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/sidshar

Record keeping

I have decided that I will be updating my market end of commentary here, primarily for myself which will help me put my thoughts and feel of the day in words and in an orderly manner. I think this will help me in recollecting my thoughts for the next day. Overall it helps me in getting a better grip on markets.
For intraday commentary and updates I use twitter and will be improving it. I believe by writing my thoughts I can make myself personally accountable. It will make me go over my plan once more before taking an intraday decision.

Anyone can follow me on twitter www.twitter.com/sidshar