Day Summary

The resistance is holding so far. Market is reducing its overbough condition right now. We need to see if market wears of its overbought condition by digesting last few days gain and build steam to blow thru the resistance or does it start a new downward leg from here. There could be some backing and filling before next leg up. UNG seems to be clearing a big resistance right now, if this gets cleared next stop is at 50. I am gonna hold UNG for long term as this could be start of a potential big trend in UNG.

Day Summary

Nothing much to add from yesterday S&P is getting close to resistance, lets see whether it consolidates and digest its gains or whether it pulls back from here.

Day Summary

Another day of rally, I think there is some more upside left before resistances start to kick in. Remember 1395-1410 on S&P500 which it may get there in next couple of days.

Day Summary

A nice feel good day today in markets. Fridays reversal continued to upside today. After a long time we have got a followthru day. Everything was green on my screen today, I think we will go higher from here atleast till next resistance on S&P between 1395 and 1410. There is 20-30 points upside in S&P before next resistance is seen.
I didnt put a weekly trade this week because nothing caught my eyes, though in hindsight few of them did quiet nicely today ILMN, XLE, BCO, DE. I will try to get an entry in them tomorrow also I will try to buy some SPY tomorrow. It has some upside potential now.

Day Summary

Another reversal today confusion and squeeeze goes on. Any trade has to be manage intraday because this chopiness is not allowing any swing entries. Right now the best place to be in Commodities as they are on absolute fire. UNG popped 4% today even though Oil didnt rally. We are reaching resistance on UNG but momentum tells me that we may just blow past it and beyond.

Day Summary

Toda another reversal we open higher and closed lower pathetic volume except IWM showed some big selling on modrate volume. Squeeze and whipsaw continues.

Day summary

Today was the mirror image of yesterday. Led by Retailers and homebuilders we opened sharply lower but closed in green and hence the confusion and squeeze continues. This is a very hard market to trade with big volatility and day to day reversals. So stops need to be tight and trading needs to be nimble. My leftover position in ILMN and ENS got stopped out at brkeven and we inched a little profit on both of them. Even though oil rose natural gas failed to rise today. Gold as always glittered and shined and continues to defy any bearish call on it. I am a bit cautiuous on it and really wan to see a pull back to 50 dma on daily so that I can also ride the Gold train.

Day summary

All indexes gapped open higher built on global market's strength from yesterday when US markets were closed. But right after opening they started selling and turned red by mid afternoon. The squeeze and confusion continues. Both SPY and DIA are forming a symmetrical triangle consolidation. Symmetrical triangles are a neutral pattern and only a breakout will guide the new direction.
Gap open caused our XLE entry to not fire. We did enter ILMN and ENS when we got a chance of entry in late morning. Our 1st target on both of them was hit later in the day and we have a free trade on both of them now. MON also gapped higher and didnt give a chance to enter. I will still watch MON and XLE for a chance of reentry as both still look good.
UNG is acting fine so far but its reaching a key resistance between 44-45 so I might book some profit.

Monsanto (MON) ready for move?

AG plays are on roll following bullish ag commmodity future prices lately. After going thru initial correction along with broader markets they seem to be decoupling from the markets and may be ready to resume their uptrend. Look attached chart.

Stock pick for the week of 02/19/08

XLE

Stop entry 73.25
Stop 71.57
1st target 74.7
Second target 77.42

Energy sector has been a better performing sector this year and XLE seems to have bottomed and has regained its 200 dma and is now hitting its 50 dma. Friday's hammer looks bullish after a false breakdown on intraday chart. My entry is above Friday high and my stop below Friday low. My targets are at next resistances.

Also like MON, ENS, ILMN.

Day summary

Indexes closed red today but wiped out big intraday losses at close. Things became very quiet after noon today in bonds and currencies since Monday is a holiday. Squezze is continuing and no clear direction yet. I am raising stop on EQT below todays low.

Day summary

All four indexes closed down today but again on lackluster volume , as I mentined last week the volatility was expected this week considering that its a options expiration week. The squeeze is continuing in the indexes and market is churning. Its unable to make up its mind about further direction. The spring is coiling. We got out of CSCO and USTR both at abt 2% profit each after both of them hit my stop on the rest of the position. Still holding EQT and UNG both were up nicely today in negative market.

Day summary

We have been getting a good move for last three days from the identified support on S&P500. Are we out of woods yet, I dont think so because internals are not aligning yet, volume is not picking up. Next few days will guide better but clearly time is running out on bears.
We move our stop on CSCO below todays low and this is a free trade now.

Day summary

It seems we had finally started to see the light at the end of the tunnel when markets started the day with a roar early morning but the selling in the later part of the day and the fact that the nasdaq closed in red still shows there is lot of nervousness around there. The squeeze still continues but bears are losing time now if they dont start making the push to downside.
We took partial profits in CSCO today. EQT still acting fine and holding near the highs.

Gold was down substantially today and Oil was down too. The fact that gold is decoupling from dollar looks to me that gold rally is far from done yet and any dip on weekly charts should be a buying opportunity. But gold is a little overbought and I would wait on gold for few days.
Keeping an eye on ULBI for tomorrow.

Day summary

Markets are trying to hold theiw ground for last few days now and the squeeze is building up to fire one way or the other. So far I am trading stocks on their own merit without any broader market bias. Our weekly pick EQT hit our first target and looks good. We are raisng out stop to 56.85 hence we have a free trade now. Our second target is open since EQT is in blue skies with no overhead resistance.
UNG is also acting fine and CSCO is holding.

Stock pick for the week of 02/11/08

EQT is probably handful of stocks which makes up the NH list in NH_NL chart every day and somehow is resisting the downtrend of broader markets. Its trying to break its resistance for a while now and may probably be ready to head into blue skies. Daily H and lines are confirming this message. I had also liked USTR but finally setlled for this.
Entry :$56.85
Stop: $55.30
First target: 58.65
Second target: Open

Day summary

Indexes today were all over the places few closed down few up, some broke yesterdays high some broke yesterdays low. It was a choppy day at best. This kind of churning is expected when we are close to important support, bulls and bears are fighting for their turf and quite a few are sitting on sidelines to decide which party to join. Next week is option expiration week so lets expect some volatility.

Rest of AMAG got stopped out today and we took 1.26% profit on the position.

As I mentioned yesterday, I initiated a small position in UNG today at 39.64. This is a long term position so I will go with a wide stop. Take a look at attched picture to see why I am going long on UNG.

CSCO yesterday had a nice reversal yesterday with it opening at 52 wk low after earnings and closing positive on close to 250mil shares 2.5 times avergae volume, so I also took a position in CSCO at 23.4 with stop below 02/07 low. This is a short term trade so I will be exiting it next week around 24.5.

Day summary

All the indexes opened lower but closed higher today. It seems that they are bouncing from their support levels. SPY bounced from 1316 which I had identified in my 02/05 blog. The weakest link looks to be Q's among all the indexes as it is getting very close to its January lows. Yesterday also the internals didnt confirm the downmove so are we getting close to a short term bottom here? Would Q drag other three indexes down with it or they all will bounce from here and Q will follow along bouncing from its January lows which is still not broken. Whatever it is going to be one thing is very clear we are getting close to a decisive period in bull bear fight now, lets see who wins.
We are moving our stop on AMAG above todays high at 53.85.

Longterm I am getting bullish on UNG, etf for Natural Gas. I dont have any position yet but once I enter it I will post it.

Day summary

Markets followed thru on yesterdays decline but with a little conviction and we are entering support zone on DIA, SPY and IWM. Q's breached thru the support and closed below 61% retracement level. Q's may be well on its way to test the Jan 23rd lows. Againg XHB, XRT and XLF along with Semis led the decline. The unavailability of NH_NL to expand to downside yesterday was cause of concern for bears. We will see if it expands today or not. I have a long term position in QID and I will see if we can breach the lows on Q's otherise I will start contemplating closing my QID position.
We shorted AMAG today once it broke yesterdays low after breaking yesterays high. We went short AMAG at 54.37 and covered half of our position at first target of 53.5. Our stop is above todays high and we have an open target around 48.

Day summary

Markets started to rollover earlier than I thought and our pick EHTH couldnt survive broadbased huge selling in markets and got stopped out. We took a loss of 2.8% on EHTH.

We gapped down this morning and kept on selling all day long but volume was not that heavy. We might have started the new leg down and may go down to retest the lows and beyond. But I expect volatility to remain high and with a gap looming upwards, the downward move may not be straight forward. An area between 1311 and 1327 may act as support and may kill the entire down move so lets be prepared for volatile days ahead and trading a smaller size with reduced risk could be good idea.

Day summary

Have we started building the top of this two week old rally? Q's were the laggard today and so were the recent hi fliers (XLF XRT XHB). It was an inside day on all the four indexes (DIA, SPY, IWM, QQQQ) so we may still have some fuel left for upside. We will know but clearly we are coming towards some major resistances.
We entered EHTH at our entry point and so far so good but we didnt see a market rally today as we expected so we will be very careful with EHTH if things start to rollover. As I take partial profis on my way up I also reduce my position size on way down. So I will raise the stop on half of my position below todays low on EHTH.

Stock pick for the week of 02/04/08

EHTH is trying to find support at 200 ma. There was a nice reversal on 1/28 and then it got retested on Friday with a hammer. Stop is below tha retest lows and target at resistance.

Entry 26.65 Stop
1st target 27.15
2nd target 28.1
Stop 25.65

Day summary

Ok even with bad job numbers we got a nice rally today and all indexes closed in green with nice gains. Though things have started looking somewhat stable but all major indexes are reaching thier major resitances on both daily and weekly chart but not there yet. I expect market to rally some more till they hit their resistances of 50 dma on daily and 11 ema on weekly. From there on two things are most likely, either these indexes grind and churn around those resistances and try to decide further direction from there or they sell off immediately. We will see what happens. But I expect market to continue their move higher in early part of next week.
For my next week's stock pick I will try to pick a stock on its own merit because broader market is not guiding me in any direction here.
Always rememebr in markets anything can happen any time so always predefine your risk with proper stops (mental or actual).